Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 150.483886 180.246865 216.464725 264.479418 327.540189 4.091202e+02 5.253575e+02
2025-04-20 120.623357 157.559610 208.247885 285.490976 405.277296 5.936604e+02 9.352199e+02
2025-04-27 102.865618 142.873699 202.805476 304.501160 485.384707 8.242180e+02 1.605782e+03
2025-05-04 90.223506 131.326670 197.254800 319.379310 563.867192 1.102567e+03 2.696962e+03
2025-05-11 80.059009 120.908591 190.117543 328.007675 634.027739 1.418550e+03 4.430817e+03
2025-05-18 71.475150 111.183241 181.522495 330.491246 692.268840 1.760161e+03 7.144332e+03
2025-05-25 63.745870 101.483966 170.737556 324.875592 728.739564 2.080733e+03 1.104547e+04
2025-06-01 57.133251 92.699496 159.903488 315.886980 752.523406 2.393034e+03 1.683554e+04
2025-06-08 51.599450 85.086515 149.971927 306.202920 770.310943 2.714537e+03 2.589189e+04
2025-06-15 50.273288 85.115815 155.480753 335.703734 929.543462 3.976689e+03 7.677128e+04
2025-06-22 46.959533 80.836621 151.077195 338.362226 1000.218134 4.936959e+03 1.885918e+05
2025-06-29 44.668661 78.281892 149.999712 349.935180 1115.424401 6.573645e+03 8.261855e+05
2025-07-06 41.297215 73.291944 142.958537 343.526153 1158.607229 7.874815e+03 4.636778e+06
2025-07-13 40.430768 73.398971 147.881442 375.470436 1412.586702 1.301082e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 39.307777 72.803954 151.014654 403.402374 1687.455833 2.178192e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 37.939554 71.489734 152.099733 425.148530 1964.055564 3.650380e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 36.306497 69.380516 150.740171 437.774902 2207.065286 5.944914e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 34.498225 66.667096 147.309731 441.415652 2396.771342 9.278579e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 32.470029 63.238007 141.394529 433.209405 2483.173387 1.297859e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 30.480071 59.719527 134.756203 420.108333 2514.650107 1.715549e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 28.645690 56.413841 128.301742 406.044776 2524.957893 2.229986e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 28.570098 57.320257 134.168939 449.052974 3237.300567 1.060458e+06 NaN
2025-09-14 27.434029 55.520756 131.734881 452.952631 3518.770467 3.098913e+06 NaN